Tag: 住房

  • 住房:住得下,才谈得上其他

    先回答下面的问题,再读正文。

    1. 你现在睡觉的房间,是自家、合租、宿舍,还是亲戚家的一张床?换一种会先失去什么?
    2. 你们家聊天时,房子更常被说成遮风挡雨,还是被说成不能卖错的时机?
    3. 如果结婚不再被要求先有房,你觉得身边的配对会变容易,还是只是把压力推迟到生孩子?
    4. 租房对你意味着自由还是意味着随时被赶走?你怕的是涨租、收回,还是房东不修水管?
    5. 小区里有没有很多黑灯的窗户?你觉得那是投资房,还是人已经搬走、卖不掉?
    6. 回老家住更宽敞,可你为什么还是想在城里挤?城里到底多了哪一样老家给不了的东西?
    7. 如果公积金和月供突然变成你的第一笔大人开销,你还会选现在想学的专业吗?
    8. 这价我看着想笑。首付谁出?讲「住得下」是不是站着说话?
    9. 一套学区房和一套通勤两小时但能每人有桌的房子,你选哪套?你的选择在为谁负责?
    10. 如果租约只能签三个月、房东随时能收回,你还敢把书架钉上墙吗?不敢的时候,少买书、少请客,算性格冷漠,还是租约的形状?

    住得下是一句很土的话,土得像水、电、吃饭。这一课把住房同时看成屋顶和资产。可一旦住不下,其他句子都会变脆。工作要不要换,先问新地方睡哪;恋爱要不要继续,先问两个人有没有关得上门的房间;要不要孩子,先问婴儿床放在哪张已经占满的地上。住房因此不是装修风格问题,是生活的底板。底板同时还有另一个身份:它是很多家庭最大的一块财富,是父母能拿出来的谈判筹码,是婚姻里被反复测量的诚意。两个身份会打架。当房子主要是资产,空着也能挣钱,住的人会变成成本;当房子主要是屋顶,价格下跌会让家庭觉得被剥夺。政策如果只抓住其中一极,另一极就会在夜里敲门。敲门声你们已经听过:有人抱怨买不起,有人抱怨买了变成接盘,有人抱怨租了十年还是没有钥匙上的安全感。

    这一课把住房放在人能住的前提下讲,不是否认金融,是否认一种颠倒:先让报表好看,再让人侧身睡觉。颠倒在上涨周期里几乎不可见,因为上涨本身会给家庭幻觉,以为侧身是暂时的。暂时变成十年,人会修改自己的欲望:少见面,晚结婚,把孩子计划删掉,把朋友变成线上。修改欲望看起来像个人选择,底下是平方米和月供在做主。做主的东西必须被说明白,否则公共讨论会停在骂开发商、骂年轻人躺平、骂父母爱比较。骂很省力,量不出一套能睡觉的房间到底被哪些机制抬高,又被哪些机制空置。

    贵,通常不是一个坏蛋造成的

    房价是几股力量拧在一起的绳。地价是一股。城市把住宅用地拍贵,楼面成本一起贵。贵地的理由我们在上一课讲过:财政要钱,位置稀缺,学区医院叠在上面。第二股是人。人往机会密度高的地方去,短时间内房子生产不出来,租金和售价会先用排队来回应。第三股是金融。按揭把几十年收入折现成今天的购买力,公积金、亲友借贷、开发贷把杠杆加上去。杠杆让更多人能买,也让价格对利率和预期更敏感。预期一旦认为明年更贵,今年就会有人提前入场;提前入场真的把明年买贵,预言自我实现。反过来也一样:预期认为会跌,有支付能力的人也观望,成交冷,开发商降价,预期被证实。住房市场因此不像买菜,而像一场关于未来城市的投票,票箱是网签和中介的委托书。

    供给并非不能增加,增加却慢,而且增加的位置经常不对。远郊容易批、容易推土,近处的城中村和老旧区难拆、难谈、难安置。于是新房像潮水一样出现在通勤两小时的地方,而岗位仍在内圈。人买了远的新房,等于买了未来的汽油和时间。时间是一种看不见的房租。开发商愿意在远的地方造,因为地便宜、户型好做、展示区好看。家庭愿意在涨价想象里接受远,因为总价看起来像能够得着的梦。梦落地后,是早起的家长和在班车里补觉的工人。供给如果只按套数考核,不按能不能按时到达工作地考核,套数会骗人。骗人的套数会进入新闻,成为调控成功的证据,同时成为晚高峰的实体。

    质量是另一层被价格盖住的东西。新房可能漏,旧房可能电路老化,装修可能用半年就开裂。住得下不只是有门牌,是冬天能暖、下雨不漏、燃气不吓人、邻里不完全陌生。质量差的房子会把家庭重新推入维修和吵架。租赁市场尤其明显:能搬走是租客的唯一强谈判,可搬走的成本是孩子转学和重新押金。于是很多人接受漏和吵,把忍耐当成成熟。成熟如果建立在无处可去上,那是被困,不是品德。被困的人多了,城市会显得稳定。稳定的统计里没有漏水。漏水在夜半,不进报表。

    家庭把房子当成谈判桌

    中国很多家庭的住房决策不是个人决策。父母出资,就有资格问户型、问地段、问结婚对象的条件。出资是爱,也是控制。控制不一定恶意,它来自他们自己被单位分房或被拆迁改写过命运的记忆。记忆告诉他们:关键时刻必须抓住一套。抓住一套的策略,在上涨年代是对的;在价格不再单边上涨时,可能把全家锁进一套过大、过远、过重的资产。锁进去以后,职业选择变窄,因为月供不喜欢你去创业或去外地。婚姻也变窄,因为另一套房子或另一笔出资会进来比较。比较把亲密关系变成资产负债表。表格能算清金额,算不清一个人为什么不愿意回家吃饭。

    代际合力买房,还会改写谁有权住。登记在谁名下、贷款用谁的流水、装修听谁的,都会在争吵里被翻出来。翻出来的不是礼貌问题,是风险分配:房价跌了谁认亏,离婚时如何切,老人要过来住谁让房间。很多家庭用「先买了再说」把这些推迟。推迟不是消失。孩子出生、一方失业、一方要回老家照料,推迟的条款会在最累的时候生效。生效时如果没有事先写清的约定,房子会从屋顶变成武器。武器一旦举起,住得下也会变成住不下——不是缺平方米,是缺还能一起进门的人。

    婚姻市场把住房当成门票,有其粗糙的理性:离婚、疾病、失业时,有房的一方不至于立刻流落。粗糙的理性会惩罚没有资产的人,也会把一对本来可以先租着过日子的人,逼去借一笔他们算不清的债。债算不清,不是因为数学差,是因为预期在变。父母愿意出资,常常是因为他们仍按上一轮上涨来想象下一轮。想象错了,受伤害的是刚把名字写上房产证的那一代。政策改变不了饭桌评价,但可以降低「不买就无法结婚」的制度成分:租赁合同可执行、入学不完全锁房产、保障性租赁能住进真正靠近岗位的地方。制度成分下降一点,饭桌仍会吵,只是少一种无法反驳的要挟。

    租与买不是性格,是权利结构

    有人说年轻人该先租。这句话在租赁权稳定的地方更成立。稳定意味着:合同真的管几年,涨租有上限或至少可预期,房东不能因为要把房子卖给下一家就让你两周内消失,押金不是彩票。不稳定时,租是持续的临时。临时里很难养孩子、很难养一只需要安静的动物、很难把书架钉上墙。钉上墙是一个很好的指标。墙不属于你时,你连钉子都要犹豫。犹豫会进入性格:少买书,少请客,少和邻居说话,随时准备纸箱。性格被说成一代人的冷漠,其实可能是租约的形状。买能买来的,常常不是豪华,是把纸箱叠回去的权利。权利很贵。贵到许多家庭愿意用三十年债务去换。债务换来的安全感是真的,风险也是真的:收入一断,安全感会反过来变成催缴电话。

    单位宿舍、人才公寓、城中村床位,是租赁世界里的三个临时王国。宿舍便宜,管得多,适合短工。人才公寓有门槛,适合被城市点名要的人,不适合点名之外的护工和厨师。城中村床位脏乱,可它让大量刚进城的人先睡下,睡下才能上明天的班。拆掉城中村,天空线变好看,租金阶梯的最低一级会消失。消失后,人不是蒸发,是被推到更远的地下室或把两人房改成四人床。城市治理如果只拍拆后的新楼,不跟拍租客的下一张床,就会把清洁当成完成。完成对航拍负责,对夜班不负责。夜班的人仍然要睡。睡在更远的地方,他们用睡眠换通勤,再用事故率和脾气把账还回来。

    有房无人住,有人无房住

    空置是住房问题里最像讽刺的一页。投资性住房可以关着灯,等下一轮。关着灯的房间在统计上是供给,在生活上不是。供给如果不以合理价格进入租赁或出售,它就只是水泥做成的储蓄罐。储蓄罐多了,街道晚上会黑一段。黑会让还在住的人觉得自己住在仓库区。仓库区里的商业养不活,物业费会因为分摊人数少而涨。涨物业费再赶走一层人。另一方面,真正要住的人在合租、在隔断、在把客厅变成第三间卧室。两种场景可以发生在同一座城市的不同半径上。半径之间缺乏桥梁:空着的房不愿意降到租客能付的价,租客的工资也不愿意进入被认为会跌的购买。桥梁需要交易费用下降、租赁税收清楚、以及一种承认:房子可以不是唯一的升值门票,仍然是必须被使用的容器。

    库存新房是另一座桥。卖不掉的新房压着开发商、上游建材、以及已经交了首付却收不到楼的家庭。收不到楼的人住在朋友家或继续租,同时在还一套不存在的房子的债。这种情况把住房从底板变成陷阱。陷阱一旦变多,会打击整个信任:对预售、对政府的监管承诺、对婚姻里关于未来的句子。信任被打击后,即使价格下来,人也可能不买,因为怕的不是贵,是交不出钥匙。钥匙比K线图重要。政策如果只刺激成交套数,不把已售未交的楼盘清出来,刺激会变成新的不信任。不信任会让家庭把现金握得更紧,更不愿意把青春押进下一套房。押不起的时候,生育和创业一起往后推。住房于是从部门问题变成时间问题:一代人的关键十年被月供和等待吃掉。

    青年的床在哪里

    对还在上学或刚工作的人,床的形态决定社交。宿舍把人塞在一起,亲密和摩擦同时发生。合租把陌生人放进卫生间时间表。回家住把成年推迟,也把父母的目光变成二十四小时的装修评论。每一种都有代价。代价被拿来嘲笑年轻人矫情时,评论者往往忘了自己当年可能有单位的筒子楼或更便宜的相对房租。相对房租变了。变了以后,有人选择躺在父母的资产上,有人选择把工资的一半交给房东。两条路都会被骂。骂不能增加一间房。能增加的是:允许更多合法的小户型,允许长期租赁成为可登记的居住,允许公司宿舍达到安全和隐私的最低标准,而不是用消防检查把所有便宜床位一次清掉却不提供替代。一次清掉很像治理,结果是人去更黑的床。

    回老家被写成解药。解药对一部分人有效:远程工作、家里有房、县城还有同龄人。对另一部分人,回老家是职业中断。中断之后再出来,简历上会有一个需要解释的洞。洞对制造业和技术岗位尤其贵,因为手会生,圈子会散。所以回老家不是性格选择,是劳动力市场和住房市场的联合判决。判决可以更温和:让人在大城市租得下单间,周末才回;或者让次一级城市有足够的专业岗位,使人不用用北上广的房租证明自己没有失败。失败感是住房价格的精神产品。产品一旦畅销,连有房的人也会焦虑面积不够、学区不够、装修不够。不够会变成家庭战争。战争的战场是晚饭桌,伤亡是还想说话的人选择不说。

    几种把住房讲歪的说法

    第一种说法是:年轻人该先买,租就是扔钱。在租赁权稳定的地方,租是使用住房,买是叠加资产风险。不稳定时,租确实像扔钱,因为你买不到年限和墙上的钉子。把责任写成一代人不够努力,会掩盖合同短、涨租急、入学锁房产这些机制。第二种说法是:降价就能拯救青年。价格下来对还没买的人是松绑,对已经把杠杆加满的家庭是资产负债表衰退。两边都是真实的人。只喊降价、不处理已售未交和断供,会把信任再打薄一截。第三种说法是:空置税一开,灯就会亮。税能改变持有成本,也会碰到谁来核实、如何避免误伤出租和暂时空置。工具要用,不能当成咒语。第四种说法是:保障房已经很多,所以不是供给问题。保障房如果远、手续像迷宫、退出不清,它是统计,不是床。床必须能到达岗位,并且夜里真的有人睡。

    第五种说法是:城中村脏乱,拆掉就是进步。拆掉能改善天空线,也会砍掉租金阶梯的最低一级。租客不会蒸发,他们去更远或更黑的床。进步如果只对航拍负责,夜班会用睡眠和事故把账还回来。第六种说法是:回老家就能同时解决住房和幸福。对一部分人有效,对另一部分人是职业中断。中断之后再出来,手会生,圈子会散。把回老家写成性格选择,是把劳动力市场的联合判决说成觉悟。

    可选路径,各自会碰到谁

    路径一:增加真正靠近岗位的合法房间,包括小户型、合规宿舍、长租公寓,并以到达时间而不是套数考核供给。代价是远郊大户型的叙事会变难看,部分已经买了远房的人会觉得自己被骗。路径二:把租赁做成可执行的权利,涨租可预期,收回有程序,押金不是彩票,入学不完全锁死房产。代价是房东的灵活性下降,一部分短租投机会退出,短时间内房源可能变少。路径三:清理已售未交,让钥匙先于成交套数。代价是有的项目要重组、有的承诺要打折,报表会难看。路径四:让空置进入使用,租赁税收清楚,功能变更在防火和权利允许的范围内放开。代价是把房子当储蓄罐的人会反对。四条路都在把屋顶从资产功能里抢救出来。抢救不是消灭资产,是不让资产吞掉睡眠。

    政策能搬动的,和搬不动的

    政策能影响地供多少、贷款多重、预售多严、保障房给谁、租赁合同怎么执行。这些都不是小事。供地对着真正的岗位和学校,比对着航拍更有效。贷款过松会把下一轮风险提前,过紧会让刚需也变成观望。预售把建设风险交给家庭,监管就必须真的看资金是不是用在这栋楼上,而不是看仪式。保障房如果位置远、申请手续像迷宫、退出规则不清,会变成新的寻租场,而不是屋顶。租赁立法如果只写精神不写法院能执行的条款,租客仍然只会用搬走谈判。每一种工具都有副作用。副作用不是放弃工具的理由,是必须在设计时写进说明书的东西。不写说明书的政策,会在执行三年后被下一轮口号替换。替换本身又制造预期紊乱。紊乱的市场里,家庭只会更把房子当成必须抓住的稻草,因为别的信号都不稳。

    政策搬不动的,是别人如何在饭桌上评价你。评价来自漫长的单位分房记忆、来自嫁妆清单、来自同学聚会的眼神。这些不会因为一篇规划而消失。能改变评价的,是足够多的人真的靠租赁过上了不被嘲笑的生活,并且孩子没有在入学时被当场揭穿。这需要学校规则和住房规则一起改,只改住房,学校仍按房产排队,租赁就仍是二等舱。二等舱可以坐,坐久了会要求转一等。转的方式如果只有买,价格就仍会把住的功能压在投资功能下面。把两个功能分开,不是让房子不再是资产,是让资产不要吞掉屋顶。屋顶优先,资产可以继续存在,就像粮食可以进期货,但人得先吃上饭。饭可以交易,不能让仓库为了价格而永远不开门。

    首付谁出,以及先租是不是把人当傻子

    房价高到想笑,不是你们没听懂住得下。住得下是底板,底板被资产功能压住时,土话会变成站着说话。这一讲如果听成「你们应当先有觉悟再谈平方米」,可以直接停。首付往往来自父母的上一轮上涨记忆,记忆可能已经错了。错了的伤害落在刚写上名字的那一代。政策改不了饭桌评价,只能降低「不买就无法结婚、无法入学」里那些制度成分。成分不降,分析只是作文。

    先租在租赁权不稳定时,确实像扔钱:买不到年限和墙上的钉子。家里若把租说成没出息,那是在用上一轮的门票逻辑管理这一轮的风险。逻辑对不对,要看合同管不管几年、涨租可不可预期、入学锁不锁房产。锁着,租就是二等舱,先租的劝会变成无视高考和户口的空话。空话不值得听。听得见的只有:空着的灯若不肯进入可付的租金,储蓄罐和沙发就会在同一座城市里并存。并存不是道德,是交易费用和预期。预期不改,你们笑那价格,价格也不还嘴。它只是继续把睡眠和婚事往后推。

    住得下之后才会出现的选择

    住得下不是幸福保证。它只是把某些选择从不可能里捞回来:关门写一会、生病时不必向合租的人解释沙发、把父母接来住一周而不只在电话里忍耐。空间上依赖对方或对方的父母时,婚恋、入学、陪护的谈判会先变成房产谈判。住房政策若还对个人有意义,意义很普通:降低这种依赖的必要程度。普通的东西才是底板。

    住得下在不同城市的含义不同。机会极厚的地方,住得下可能是一张床加一张能放电脑的桌子;收缩的地方,住得下可能是整套空房子加找不到人说话。前者缺平方米,后者缺密度。用同一句人人有房去套,会造出更多没人的小区,和更多没桌的床。缺屋顶,就要增加能到达岗位的合法房间,包括小户型、宿舍、长租。缺生活,就不要再盖重复的房间,而要把学校、诊所、同龄人的工作做回来。做回来比盖楼慢。慢不是理由去继续盖给航拍看的楼。航拍不能睡觉。

    1. 这套空间夜里有没有人真正睡觉。
    2. 睡觉的人会不会在三个月内被无理由赶走——租赁权稳不稳,决定租是使用还是持续的临时。
    3. 从床到岗位要多久,这段时间是不是第二种房租。
    4. 家庭会议里,房子是屋顶还是必须赢的牌。牌的功能会把首付、结婚和入学焊在同一根绳上。
    5. 政策增加的是钥匙,还是只增加了待售的水泥。空灯若不进入可付的租金,储蓄罐和沙发就会并存。

    机制仍然冷酷:地、人、杠杆、预期、学校规则、租赁执行。人先睡得下,不是标题里的土话调味,是夜班、课堂和护理还能接上的前提。睡不下,被叫做未来的句子会先变成找下一张床。找床很忙,忙到没有余暇核对月供、租约和钥匙到底在谁手里。

  • 2046年的家与城市:一个少年的猜想——人们将住在哪里

    关于二十年后的城市、公寓和小城镇的一个猜测——日常生活中哪些地方会变得新鲜,哪些仍会让人觉得熟悉

    在我们开始之前,我想先和你说句实话:没有人真的知道2046年的城市和家会是什么样子。二十年是一段很长的时间。一项廉价能源的突破、人工智能的一次飞跃、一次全球大流行病、一场战争,或者一次大规模的气候冲击,都可能让画面发生不小的改变。也有可能,2046年比我们想的更眼熟——奶奶的厨房,加上一些你从没见过的新工具。所以这篇文章是一个猜测,我希望你能看清楚这个猜测是怎么搭起来的。

    我习惯把影响未来的力量按速度分成三类。有些力量变化得很快:人工智能、电池、建筑材料、通讯。有些力量变化得很慢:人体需要光与空气、家人想彼此靠近、城市需要很长时间才能重建。还有些力量平时几乎不变,但被触发时会突然剧烈改变:一场打破纪录的热浪、一条新地铁线、一项突然出台的政策、一次金融危机。本文每一处具体推测,我都会尽量说清楚我认为是哪种速度的力量在起作用,以及我在哪里可能想错。

    我要探索的猜想是这样的:到2046年,大多数中国少年长大的家,从第一眼看上去可能仍然眼熟。更大的变化会出现在门外——楼栋本身、街道、社区,以及人们在它们之间如何移动。这篇文章会沿着这个猜想走一遍。我倾向于相信这幅图景,但我希望你看到它的接缝。

    不会变的部分

    在讲变化之前,先说一些不太可能改变的事。墙壁会挡住冷气和热气。人们想要一间安静的卧室、一间有亲人在的厨房。走六分钟去上学比走半小时要好。孩子会因为抢厕所吵架。老人想离孙辈近一点。雨会落在屋顶上,屋顶老了会漏。这些慢力量在二十年里不会消失。所以当我描述新鲜事物时,请记得旧事物仍然在底下。

    我也估计到2046年,房子的价格仍然让很多人觉得头疼,就像2026年这样。形式可能不同,但仍会是个问题。这背后的慢力量很简单:当很多人想住在同一个地方,价格就会被推上去。AI不会让这件事消失。

    2046年的公寓

    2046年的中国少年,大多数应该还住在公寓楼里。这些楼可能比今天年纪更大一些——很多是2000年代和2010年代盖的,不会因为老就被全部推倒。所以如果你走进一间2046年的公寓,户型可能会让你觉得眼熟。三个房间、一个不大的厨房、阳台上挂着衣服。

    可能不一样的是细节部分。我估计到2046年,大多数公寓都会装上很好的空气滤清装置——一部分是因为人们对空气污染的担心这种慢力量没有消失,另一部分是因为相关技术变得便宜了。我估计在很多城市里,制冷会比供暖更重要——气候变化是一种慢力量,中国的夏天已经变得更长。新的公寓窗玻璃可能会像太阳镜过滤光那样过滤热量。一些老公寓的外墙可能会被加一层保温材料(一种能够把热量挡在里面或外面的材料),政府的节能项目可能会承担其中一部分费用。

    我估计每个公寓都会有某种”AI角”——一台小设备或者一块屏幕,负责处理日常事务:晚上把灯调暗、订菜、帮最小的孩子练英语、提醒家里最年长的老人吃药。这是一个”快车道”上的预测。这些工具具体长成什么样不好猜,但它们的存在我比较确定。到2026年,早期版本已经在很多家庭里出现。

    我会不会全部猜错?会的。如果到2046年之间中国遭遇了重大的经济衰退或战争,我说的那些升级可能不会发生,公寓可能就和今天差不多。如果AI工具在真实家庭里被发现”烦人多于有用”——总在响、总在坏——家庭可能直接拔掉电源。”AI角”是一个中等把握的猜测。

    多代同堂的住宅

    到2046年,世界上更多的家庭可能会住在三代或四代同堂的房子里——爷爷奶奶、爸爸妈妈、小孩在同一个屋檐下。在中国,这部分像是回到了一种更老的家庭模式。背后的原因主要是慢力量:寿命延长意味着孙辈进入青春期时祖父母还相当健康;房价高,所以共住更划算;还有AI护理工具(一种快力量)让老人留在家里、不必去养老院变得更容易。

    对一个2046年的14岁少年来说,这可能意味着奶奶住在你隔壁房间,并且会在天气糟糕的早晨把你送到电梯口。它也可能意味着家比你父母小时候住的略挤一些,意味着春节那一晚的餐桌上会坐满五代人。如果这些家庭真的形成,整体氛围很可能是温暖与小摩擦混合的。慢的人性事实不会变:再相爱的人,也会有彼此累的时候。

    我估计新建的住宅会按这种模式来设计。某些公寓可能会有一种”1.5户型”——一套主卧的家庭住宅,加上一个带独立门、共享走廊的小套间,给祖父母住。在2046年的上海、杭州这类城市,这种户型可能会变得常见。

    社区:”十五分钟生活圈”

    走出公寓门,更大的变化可能在社区。中国许多大城市在2020年代花了不少力气增加地铁线、修自行车道,并努力让日常的吃喝采买都能走着完成。到2046年,我估计许多社区会按照这样的理念设计:你日常需要的几乎所有东西——菜场、诊所、学校、公园、咖啡店、健身房——都应该能在十五分钟步行或骑行的范围内到达。这个理念在2026年已经存在,主要在欧洲和中国少数试点街区。我猜它会变得更普遍。

    我为什么倾向这样想?因为有两股慢力量朝着同一个方向推:人们越来越年长、希望走得近一些;汽车在密集城市里停车贵、用车也贵。第三股有可能突然介入的力量是:如果2030年代发生一次大的油价冲击,这个趋势会被推得更猛。一股快力量也在帮忙:电动自行车和小型电动车在最近几年已经变得好用得多。

    对2046年的少年来说,这可能意味着:你住在一个十五分钟生活圈里。学校骑车六分钟。奶奶看病的诊所就在马路对面。夜市离家两个街区。你和朋友们在自己住的楼顶碰头——业委会把那里改造成了一个小小的屋顶花园。这些都不是幻想。其中的某些片段,今天的中国就已经能找到。

    城市之间的交通

    长途出行可能也会让人觉得不一样。到2046年,中国的高速铁路网络会比今天更大。我估计一些2026年要坐六小时的车程,到2046年可能只要四小时——一部分因为新建轨道,一部分因为列车稍快了一点。考虑到通货膨胀,票价在实际价值上可能略低,因为线路投资已经回本。(这是一个中等把握的猜测,铁路政策会变。)

    在城市内部,自动驾驶出租车(自己开自己的车)可能会在2046年的大多数大城市变得正常。这项技术处在快车道。到2026年,中国的某些城市已经在受控条件下让它们上路。到2036年,我估计两百万人口以上的每一座城市都会有它们。到2046年,一个14岁少年可能根本不会开车,也不需要会。(如果我猜错了,那是因为这项技术比乐观派想的更难,或者监管一直保持很严。)

    我对”飞行出租车”(eVTOL,electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles,电动垂直起降飞行器,相当于给人坐的大型无人机)的把握小一些。这项技术到2046年应该能用。它会不会成为普通人日常的交通方式,还是只是富人的昂贵玩具,要看规则怎么定,也要看城市如何处理它的噪音。我的猜测:它存在,但2046年的大多数少年还是会坐地铁。

    城市的气候适应

    气候变化是一股慢力量,但它的影响已经看得见。到2046年,城市必须做更多的适应——这无法回避。我估计中国的城市在这件事上会比大多数地方做得更好。原因既政治也实际:中央政府决定行动时可以推得很快,中国的工程师在大型基础设施上有很扎实的纪录。

    那会是什么样子?更多的树和公园(有时被叫做”海绵城市”——一种让雨水渗下去而不是淹上街道的设计)。更多反光的白色屋顶来给楼栋降温。最热的街区里设地下避暑空间。带空调的公交站。为干旱年份准备的更大蓄水设施。更准确的台风和洪水预报。这些都不是什么稀奇东西,2026年已经有了零部件。问题是它们能铺多广。

    我对”城市基本能跟上”是中等把握。我不太确定的,是这些城市里每个人都能均匀受益。富裕街区大概率最先升级。较旧的、住在条件较差街区的楼栋,可能最后才轮上。这是一种我们在2026年已经看得很清楚的慢力量。

    隐私与”会看人的城市”

    2046年的城市里,建筑内外的摄像头和传感器都会比今天多得多。其中有些会带来好处——找回走丢的孩子、抓住真正的犯罪、管理交通。也有一些会让人觉得过头。我估计”有用”和”过头”之间的边界在哪里,会成为2030年代和2040年代持续争论的问题之一。

    具体到中国,我估计大多数居民在大多数时候会觉得这套系统井然有序,但也有一部分人会有一种被一直看着的安静的感觉。这种感觉如何取决于你是谁、你想做什么。这背后的慢力量是人性的:人想要安全,也想要自由,两者会拉扯。快力量则是技术,它让监控工具和隐私工具同时变得更强。

    我不会假装知道这场辩论会怎么收场。我估计它会被反复”重新收场”,在许多城市、许多次小型的争论与规则中一点一点向前。一个2046年的14岁少年,会在很多小事情上感觉到它:学校大门能识别你的脸,楼宇知道你什么时候到家,手机能证明你这一天去过哪里。其中一些你会喜欢,另一些不会。

    中小城市与乡村

    到目前为止,我主要在写大城市。2046年的大多数中国少年应该还是会住在大城市,但住在中小城市、甚至乡镇和村庄里的比例可能会增长——一部分因为远程办公改变了人们能在哪里生活,一部分因为有些大城市变得太贵。

    在中小城市,我估计上面描述的那些变化会到达得稍慢,但终会到达。”十五分钟生活圈”在小城其实比在超大城市更容易建——因为小城本来就没那么大。多代同堂在小一点的地方从未真正消失过。AI工具一旦被造出来就便宜,所以会在到达大城市之后几年内传到县乡。

    乡村的图景更难猜。如果到2046年高速互联网、医疗和好的学校都能进村,对一些年轻家庭来说,乡村生活可能会重新有吸引力。如果做不到,那么城市化这股慢力量会继续推动人口向城市流动。我稍稍倾向于”乡村比2026年更有吸引力”,但只是稍稍。2030年代的政策会决定其中很大一部分。

    被地图遗忘的人

    上面描绘的那个2046年,对于大约十亿左右、生活在城市或者交通便利的中小城市、且收入稳定的中国人来说大致成立。对其他人来说,这些升级要么晚到,要么根本不到。外来务工人员可能仍住在没有新空气滤清和新制冷的旧楼里。子女远在外地的乡村老人,可能身边没有人帮他们把”AI角”配置好。容易受气候伤害的街区,可能要等到一次悲剧上了新闻之后,才能拿到避暑设施。

    放到全球范围看,2046年的中国和许多低收入国家之间的差距,可能不是缩小,而是扩大。技术会传开,但安装它的钱不一定跟得上。(这是一个猜测,我很愿意被证明猜错了。)

    “十五分钟生活圈”在今天就是一种特权,到2046年也很可能仍然是。2040年代末关于住房和交通的政治争论,本质上都是在争谁有资格拿到这种被重新设计过的日常生活。

    结语

    这整篇文章是一个猜测。我所做的最显眼的猜测,并不是家会变得更聪明,也不是出租车会自己开。而是日常生活的形状——你走路能到哪里、谁住在你隔壁房间、夏天的空气是什么感觉——可能在静悄悄地发生改变,加起来变成一种不太一样的生活。2046年公寓的墙壁,从外观上可能和2026年的差不多。墙外的部分,才是最有可能让人觉得新鲜的部分。

    我倾向于这幅图景,因为推动它的力量——快速的技术、缓慢的人口变化、缓慢的人类需求——似乎指向相近的方向。但我可能在很多方向上错。一场战争或金融危机可能让城市升级停下来。一次气候冲击可能重排整幅画面。廉价能源或者AI的一次大跃进,可能让世界比我描述的要陌生得多,而那种陌生我从2026年这个位置看不到。请把这篇文章当作一位老师的最佳猜测来读,然后做出你自己的猜测。

    给你的一个问题

    如果让你重新设计你现在所住的楼栋或街道里的一件事——一项二十年后会让你日常生活变得更好的改动——你会改什么?为什么?你的答案不必从这篇文章里挑。你的回答会改变你现在正在做的某个选择吗?比如去哪里读书、去哪里工作、下一步搬去哪里?

  • Architects / Designers:how to promote yourself in China

    1. Let them know how much you typically charge.
    2. Share your new design renderings, sketches, photos in our website, which will be shown to many people here in China. Do not worry our site is easy to use. And it’s all free. Scroll down to read our explanation.
    3. Or, if you are a freelance designer, you can use our another website to create a Chinese resume for free.

    Note that if you publish these messages on our website, we will be able to share them with all our readers at the same time using the internet marketing tools by giving them the link. In the meantime, search engines will also help you to find clients who are interested in your design.

    If you are a design firm and have no website, I am afraid our clients will not trust you. Would you like us to create a website for you?

    Chinese social media

    How to post your new designs in Chinese social networking sites without hiring a translator

    A picture says a thousand words, especially when design is involved. Publishing your best work is the best way of marketing nowadays because it’s efficient without needing to type a lot of words, and using your smart phone to do so can be fast. It saves your energy because what you need to do is just make a number of selections, and upload a few photos of your works.
    More and more people are using smart phones to get on internet, instead of PC. And people are using social networking sites to share/get information more and more, instead of using browsers. So we encourage our international architects and designers also try to use the Chinese social networking sites, which are similar to Facebook and Twitter.

    Really? Can I use my smart phone to post my new design works to a Chinese social networking site, even though I do not read and write Chinese?
    Yes you can. And you don’t need to write nor read Chinese, it’s easy and free. Just fill some forms we designed. Your selections will be shown in Chinese.

    • DESIGN BROCHURE IDEAS: HOW TO MAKE IT ATTRACTIVE TO CHINESE CLIENTS, Click [2];
    • FIND CHINESE DESIGN PARTNERS WAORKING TOGETHER FOR MORE JOBS, click [3];
    • HOW TO DESIGN A CHINESE WEBSITE/COMPANY PROFILE, click [4];
    • TEAMING UP FOR SUCCESS: CALL YOUR TALENTED DESIGNER FRIENDS TO FORM A STRONGER TEAM, click [5];
    • TELL OUR CLIENTS IF YOU ARE VISITING CHINA AND WANT US TO SET UP SOME MEETINGS [6];
    • YOU SHOULD PUBLISH YOUR TYPICAL DESIGN FEE IN CHINA! [7];
    • TO INTERNATIONAL DESIGNERS/ARCHITECTS WHO HAVE ALREADY SET UP AN OFFICE IN CHINA [8];
    • TERMS AND CONDITIONS [9];
    • HOW TO GET PAID IN CHINA BY THE DEVELOPERS [ARCHITECT/DESIGNER] [10];

    There are five basic design brochure principles that we would like you to remember:

    1. It needs to be .pdf or .pps format. Do not send us a bunch of photos.
    2. The pictures need to be clear, not blurring. Under every project’s pictures, explain why you believe the project is appealing to Chinese client. The style? the effective costs? it indicates a new trend? sustainability? Please write down your thoughts as if you are meeting with our clients and you want to convince them face in face. What will you be saying when you in the same room with them? Write them down. All the specials…
    3. Make it clear what kind of services you provided on each project, for example, if you are an interior designer but you didn’t design the cabinetry, please make it clear.
    4. Your brochure needs to be translated.
    5. On each slide or page, there should be one major photo which size is large enough to see details even the reader is a senior citizen. Such major picture should be at least 600 x 400. If you believe your parents will complain the pictures are too small on your brochure, then please do it again.

    Take a look at this e-Brochure that we think the best.
    Remember that, in most cases, the Chinese decision makers are senior, and they will make decisions based on your brochure, and the interview. None of them speaks English.


    Have you revised your brochure according to the four requirements above?

    Yes but it is not translated yet. | Yes we have.




    Obviously your office do not have anyone who speaks Chinese. Please click brochure translation to read about our translation services. If you cannot afford that, you will read instructions of how to have your company profile page translated, for free. After that please come back and click “translated brochure.”




    You have already translated your brochure into Chinese? Great! Before you send it to us, please take a look at these new luxury houses built in China in recent years to understand what kind of styles/design Chinese clients believe are high quality and nice; things are so different here, Chinese have different taste. You really need to understand what typical Chinese clients like before you introduce yourself to this market. If you believe your design brochure meets the taste of Chinese clients, please upload your brochure to your website and give us the link. Click here to send the download link.

    Are you already working in China? Click here. Otherwise please keep reading.

    —————————————-





    We have worked as a facilitator/translator on many projects in China. Most of international designers and architects were having a hard time trying to understand what the Chinese clients really want. It was very time consuming and almost exhausting at the beginning of each project. In some cases the client just fired the designer because they were running out of time and patience.

    One big difference is: Almost all Chinese clients would like to have their projects/homes feel like a luxury hotel, especially those top brands like Ritz Carlton which is more classic feeling than W hotel, etc. While in the western world, private homes/spaces are definitely very different in terms of feeling.

    In cities like New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, etc, people like these kinds of architectural styles: barns …they are not considered pretty in China. They reminds us of cheap industrial buildings, workshops, etc. So do not include this type of works in your presentation. When you include some particular styles that you designed, ask yourself: do Chinese like this kind of thing? We do also love to keep our own history when we develop a new project, and there are also many traditional Chinese architectural styles that we are now trying to rebuild, like these: 1 | …what I am saying is, before you send us anything, think hard and figure our what would be appealing to your future clients, and choose those pictures to include in your brochure, which represents you in the first meeting with each potential Chinese client.
    Most international architects’ design consists of 100% straight lines, 90 degree corners, hard edges/surfaces. We do not like that. We like your works showing a balance of straight lines and curves. So please pick pictures of your works appropriately.

    • If you are sure no Five Star hotel brand would accept your design/style, then most likely we will not like it either. If you have never worked on any project that has the quality of a Five Star hotel, then you need to team up with someone else because most Chinese clients will not accept your portfolio. This is tricky we know. Click here to find our more about our advice regarding teaming up with other talented designers.

    Ok, next





    • Do not try to include different styles in your presentation showing that you have the ability to design many different styles, only include those that you are really good at.
    • Focus on your experience working on Chinese projects if any.
    • If you have designed any luxury projects, please include them and explain what services you provided in more details. Try to find some recent photos from the official websites of those projects.
    • If have some good designer friends who are talented and easy to work with, call them and see if you can include their portfolio.

    Okay I get it, next.





    Appropriate size of pictures in your brochure

    • Some featured images should cover the entire page, and they should have high resolution. Do not include a lot of pictures in one page, readers will get confused and distracted. Every page should have a large photo.
      Not over 5 pictures on one page. Click here for a good example.

    Okay I just improved it, next.





    • When you include the resumes of the designers, no need to say a lot about his/her educational background, or which companies he/she worked in, list all the projects he/she was involved, and what he/she was doing on those projects. We only care about his/her working experience…the type of projects he/she was working on is more important.

    Teaming up for success


    Okay I just improved it, next.





    A tailored brochure always work better than a general brochure of your company when we have a project for you, unless you are working in a small design studio with a very limited portfolio. Some of the successful large international design firms have already been doing this. They have multiple brochures for different types of projects, for example, a brochure of master planning works plus one for interior design projects, plus one for hotel projects, etc.
    At least prepare a carefully tailored brochure specially edited for the China market. Do not use the same brochure that you show to your local clients. If you do not know what the differences are, well you have so work to do, please more articles posted on this website. We will help you.


    I have already done that. | I have sent you our brochure and apparently it was accepted by you. [hide-this-part morelink=”Click here to send us your brochure”][contact-form-7 id=”822″ title=”send.us.brochure”][/hide-this-part]





    If you are looking for a full time job in China, then it’s fine that you do not need a translated brochure of your works. Otherwise we cannot promote your service here as we cannot send a designer’s brochure to a client which cannot be understood. It will make us unprofessional.
    2. You need a really impressive digital brochure for us to show to our potential clients. Sadly most of the international design firms do not have one. Only those mid-large firms have enough experience and portfolio to make an impressive/professional presentation of the company. Yes we know that most designers have a brochure but they are not impressive enough for Chinese clients. Here in China the clients only hire large design firms who look strong and experienced. If you have a small firm, only you and your assistant work in the office, then try to team up with other small firms so that the team looks strong. We can put you together with other smaller international design studios if you feel comfortable. We know this does not sound pleasant but that’s why you need a consultant and representative because here in China everything is different. Being uncomfortable working here is normal. If you hire us to be your representative, then we will do this for you, just send us all your works and we will handle everything else. Pls click membership above to find our more about our services and how we charge for our time.
    3. Your brochure needs to be in Chinese/Mandarin. If you do not have an in-house translator, then we can do that for you. In most cases our translation is better than those you can find in the translation agencies, etc because we understand the terminologies and know what’s important, what’s not for marketing purpose. Typically we charge …
    4. If your marketing people is not very good at making presentation, then we can also do that for you, we charge $25/hour and normally it would be $100 for us to make a presentation for you. Again, our marketing people know what’s important, which picture should be emphasized, which one should be moved away, etc.
    5. We want to build long term relationship with all our business partners. And we hope you do too. Which means we will need to show understanding to each other when things are not moving forward as we expect. Also, we need to be flexible enough to establish your company in this country.

    Purposes of teaming up with Chinese design partners:

    • They can connect you with many Chinese clients and resources if your talent and attitude are favored by them.
    • Before each project, especially if it is an architecture design or master planning task, the architect and planner need to have enough information regarding the local codes, resources, rules, traditions, available materials, cultural background, etc. There is no way you can do it all by yourself, without the support form a local design partner.
    • A Chinese designer partner will be great help to lower the cost, and speed up the process.
    • You could save your cost of hiring a translator too if they have an in-house translator.
    • They can review your design right from the beginning, before you show it to the Chinese clients. And in most cases they will have some questions/confusions/advice for you to modify your design package, so that the clients do not see them.

    How to find Chinese design partners
    Step 1: Post your company profile in our Chinese website. Just click HOME above to take a look at it, then sign up. Click here for more details of how to create a Chinese company profile. You will also read why this is necessary. Our website is like Linkedin, the difference is that our Chinese website focuses on helping international architects and designers to find jobs in China, nothing else. Also we are consultants, not running a website.
    Step 2: When you post your company profile, select that you would like to work as consultants or part time designer for a high level local design firm, or select that you are looking for local design teams to partner with. When our designer friends read those messages online, and like your Chinese company profile shows, they will contact you, or ask us to contact you.
    Step 3: We will ask the local design firm to send their website and brochure to you. If both are happy with each other’s works, Amasia will draft a contract for you both to sign, after both sides approve the content. We will need both sides to pay us for this phase of services when a contract of partnership is signed.

    How much do we charge for this kind of networking
    We charge $500 on each side after a contract is signed. If any side decides to quit, or not really confident in the other side, then we do not need to sign this contract, and nobody needs to pay us.

    Why do I need a Chinese website? Well, besides the obvious marketing reasons, there are some technical aspects to consider.

    1. Most of international websites are blocked by the Chinese government, as you may have heard. What you haven’t heard is that yours, although non-political and pure-design, might have been blocked too. It’s not really because you posted anything they do not like, it’s just that your website shares the same IP address and the server with a bunch of others which most likely caused the problem. It’s easier to create a separate website in Chinese which you make sure it’s accessible by Chinese. Your website hosting company/web designer didn’t check this because they never had to look at this. Also you need to be in China to check it. We can help you to verify that, please use the link to the right (PC), or below (smart phone).
    2. Many international designers’ sites are fancy but very slow to open for Chinese to browse, because we do not have the same internet speed as you do in your country. So we always explain to our clients that their new Chinese websites need to be simple and easy to navigate, not too fancy. Just like our website, it’s not fancy, but light weight, easy to follow and informative. You can send your site to us using the comment form below, and we will tell you if it’s fast enough.
    3. Your existing site may not answer those essential/relevant questions to our potential Chinese clients because it was designed for your own traditional market, not Chinese market. They do not need to know the brands /manufacturer /distributor of particular furniture/fixtures in your project, because it’s very unlikely a Chinese client will import them from your country. They do not like to hear you keep saying how great your relationships with your old clients are, how thoughtful you are…everybody says those words and we do not want to hear that. In this new Chinese website you need to tell your potential Chinese clients what they are concerned about, what they think it’s relevant and important…which you need yet to learn I think, you need us to tell you. If you would like us to help, and tell you what additional information to provide in your website, please use the comment form below to let us know your requirements, including your budget. We will let you know how much we will charge. Typically it’s about $100~200 depending on the size of your site.
    4. Chinese have very different taste than the westerners, which we believe you also need us to advise you, so that you show exactly what the local market want to see in your Chinese website. So you may have already translated your website into another language, it is unlikely you have modified the content. We can help you to select those works that will impress Chinese clients the most.

    If you are a freelancer designer, you only need a resume and portfolio. No need to have a website. Or a blog would do.

    Do you have a Chinese website?

    Yes I do | Not yet.

    First of all, make sure your nice website is not be blocked in China. Comment on this post and let us know your website, we will verify it for you.

    Done that? okay, let me explain why we can do a better job than your local website design company regarding designing this Chinese website.

    1. We speak Chinese, they don’t which means they will have to hire someone to translate your site into Chinese language, and nobody knows about the quality of translation. If you hire us to do this, there will be no translation needed, we write new fresh information in Chinese which is our mother tongue, which would sound a lot more native. Your English message is mainly for local clients, or maybe international clients, but not particularly for China. Even it’s translated it is still for the same clients. There will be some essential information missing in your translated site.
    2. Designing a website for a design firm is not as difficult as many people may think nowadays, we are not a professional web design company but we can do a very good job, because your website does not need advanced coding/programing. We will just work on the look, style and more importantly the content, pictures, etc. These are quite easy actually. Remember that we are running a bilingual website ourselves and we did everything by our hands.
    3. Our cost is not higher than hiring your previous web design company, if not cheaper.




    Run a blog of your design

    Many designers and corporation use Facebook and Linkedin to promote their design. You may also do that in China market. China has Linkedin but Facebook is blocked. However, the most popular Chinese social networking platform is called Wechat which is similar to Facebook and we can maintain a Wechat account for you to attract more clients.
    We can also run a professional and constantly-updated blog as part of your Chinese website. Search engines like Google favor websites with fresh contents. That’s extra cost of course, on a weekly basis. Compared with the traditional marketing strategies, this is very effective, and very cost efficient.

    Almost all our clients in China found us from internet. We are pretty good at this strategy.

    If your company is not a big design firm, and you do not want to spend a lot of money and time to create a new website in Mandarin, you can just create a company profile page in Chinese, which is free using our tools. Click the link to the right to read more details. The link may be below if you are reading this article on your phone.

    Even if you represent a big design firm, you should also consider creating a Chinese company profile page on our websites just like what you do on Linkedin. Our Chinese websites is similar to Linkedin which features in introducing international designers, instead of successful design projects. It’s free.

    As you may have seen that Amasia is an internet-based business, which means we are very familiar with internet marketing. And we are pretty good at it actually. Let’s help you to take advantage of the efficiency of internet and expand your business in China.
    How to start? Simple. You need to have all the necessary materials in Chinese, and then show them to the China market. It’s just like you do business in your own country. First of all, you have a website in Chinese, print some brochures/business cards which your targeted market can read, and find ways to pass them to the customers. The same process applies here.

    Updating your Chinese website means it will have new contents regularly, say every week. Normally we need 2 hours to produce a nice article related to your business, and in Chinese language, and have it published on your website. Such contents will not be translated into English to get your approval because it will be too time consuming. How do we get the content on your behalf? Every week we will send you a document with a list of questions regarding your new project, or a well known project, or a project in China, your opinions and answers will be translated into Chinese. That’s the way we update your Chinese website.

    So are you ready to hear more about the cost? Not very expensive.

    Yes, I am interested in creating a Chinese website. | No, thank you.. | I am only interested in the cost of a Chinese blog.





    Cost of Design A Chinese Website

    The cost is typically $500~800, including translation and the first year’s fee. If you have a long award list, or over 1,000 words to translate, we will charge extra translation fee. Use the comment form below to send us your website, we will email you how much the actual cost will be after taking a look at your site.

    Click “bilingual website design” to the right to find out information if you do not have a website yet, not even in your own language, and you think it’s a good idea to just hire us to design a bilingual website for your design service, for example, if you just opened your own design studio, or you would like to have a business of your own on the side as a senior designer of a design firm you work for. The cost is also shown there.

    Want to learn more about the steps of hiring us to design a Chinese website for you? Click here.

    ————————————————–





    What are our steps to design a Chinese website

    Step 1: After receiving your retainer, typically half of the design fee, we will send you a list of questions that typical Chinese clients always ask before they hire an international design firms, for example: Have you worked in China before? Can you put together a team with China working experience? How much do you charge? Have you worked for any celebrities that are known in China? etc.

    Step 2: Translate the content into Chinese.

    Step 3: Install a Chinese website and design the appearance and page structure.

    Step 4: Upload the content translated, and your pictures of works/team member photos.

    Done!

    Remember that the fee only includes the cost for our service. You will need to pay the hosting company each year for the domain, hosting costs directly. We will let you know the process and where to pay. Those are normally American companies.

    We are expected to be paid for the second half of design fee after you approve the new Chinese website.

    Send us your existing website and requirements, we will tell you how much and how long to take.





    Maintain/update your Chinese website

    How much does it cost to hire you to update my Chinese website to keep it on the first page of Google search results?

    Generally we need two hours to post a professional design related article on your behalf, in Chinese, based on the information you shared with us.

    We charge $100 for each post.

    Question: If I pay you to update my Chinese websites by posting design-related articles regularly, how do I know the quality will be good since it’s all in Mandarin?

    Answer: We will not write anything on behalf of you. We will just translate your own advice/ opinions/ process/ analysis, so you can trust the quality of the original source. As for our translation skills, trust us, this is really simple job for us. Interpretation is challenging because you won’t be able to use dictionary.

    ***********************************************
    Learn How to Convert Company Profile into Chinese FOR FREE!

    Most of you have a company profile page on Linkedin.com. It has it’s limits because your information/profile is in English so it does not work in China. We are offering you an opportunity to create a company profile page which you can add to your own websites or any of your social-networking pages like Facebook or Linkedin. Wouldn’t that be nice?

    How?

    Amasia has a popular website focusing on introducing international design firms, in Chinese language of course. It is not a website like those design magazines, which focuses on sharing design projects and products like Architectural Digest. When a Chinese client looks for an international design firm, it saves them a lot of time to search on our site. Our website is designed that way. They will get the most important and basic information from our posts straight away. Take a look! It does not look like a design firm, nor a design magazine, it’s informative and thus very popular/trusted.

    How come it is free?

    When you sign in our Chinese website, you will make a lot of selections, answer some questions. Those selections have already been translated. Your answers will be incorporated into an article in Chinese. In another word, our system will convert your selections like interior design, USA, California…into Chinese without the need to human translation.
    Since we have been a bridge linking international architects and designers with Chinese market for years, and we have always been using internet, social media to promote the designer’s services, our online conversion system actually works quite well.

    There will be some messages that you typed cannot be translated by our system, we can provide human translation to those words when requested. Remember that, anything you select will be translated, anything you type will need to be translated by us.
    When you start a new business, the first thing you do is to register your company so that clients can find you, and then get a business card. The same process applies with the China market. You need to register your services ONLINE in Chinese, and prepare a business card in Mandarin. Well, such a Chinese company profile serve both purposes.

    Question: Will I be notified if a Chinese client contacts me on your site?

    • Yes, the site will encourage any potential client to contact you directly, and the message will also be automatically converted into English, which is also free. There will be no human translation involved that’s why.

    Very few architects/designers can offer a presentation that is impressive enough for us, by selecting works of his/her own. If you want to compete with those large international architectural deisgn firms, you have to team up with other designers, and make your team as strong as those large firms which have been working in China for years, like SOM, Gensler, etc. In China, most of your future clients are large companies, and they would not select a small design firm without an impressive portfolio.

    Also, it’s important to team up with a few Chinese design firms so that you can handle a lot more projects as a team. Click local business partner above to read more details of how.

    How do we create advantages for small design firms to win jobs
    When a client chooses a designer/architect, they mainly think about Price, China Experience, Quality of Design, Well Known Projects and Celebrity Clients, Flexibility(Easy to Work With).
    Because Amasia represents a number of freelancer designers and small size studios, we can always put together a team of different design firms, so that the team is just like a large international design firm. Most of the projects that need international designers are large scale ones like resort master planning, and only a complete team can do it well. Coordination among such a team is handled by our experienced project managers who speak both languages.

    Your company may have no experience working in China, but a couple of other team members will have. However, they may not have won top design awards but you may have. So we combine all of you together to look better. If you sign up our websites, our local designer friends may choose to team up with you for some high end projects that they may not be able to handle themselves. Click HOME above to sign up that site.
    Remember, before you reach us, think about bringing a team of your friends.

    In many cases, we recommend our designers to a Chinese client, and after the Skype interview, both sides feel comfortable with each other, but the face-to-face meeting becomes a problem. It’s too expensive and time consuming for the designer to fly to China to meet with the client. So it’s a very good idea to try to meet with as many potential clients and business partners as possible, when you or your collegue will be in China soon.
    So we created a form encouraging you to post the messages of such trip to China on our website, and we will spread it to the world so that our clients and business partners know. This is free, and our system can convert your messages into Chinese so that more people will get to know you here in China. Want to try it?
    Step 1, register a username here.
    Step 2, click Post New to let us know you are coming and we will help you to meet with some of our clients who are looking for international designers. Yes that is a Chinese website, it is supposed to be in Chinese, that’s why we do not want you to post it in this website which readers are English-speakers. It’s the same company who manages the two sites. We are a bridge and we do things differently.
    Step 3, decide if you will need a translator with you, or you will want the client to arrange the translator.

    • It saves everyone’s time. Since most of jobs have a tight schedule, in many cases our clients may just pick you out of a favorite list since they know they can afford your service.
    • If the readers of our website know how much you typically charge, who are mainly Chinese local designers, our Chinese designer friends will also introduce your team to their clients who are looking for international designers, when they find out that your service is in the budget of the clients.
    • We, Amasia Marketing Consultants, also prefer to recommend those who are not expensive to our clients. So we need to know how much you charge, in addition to your talent.

    When you work in China, the air fare and all other mis expenses during design should be part of your proposal. There is no such a thing that the client reimburse you on those costs. For example, if you want to charge $100,000 for your design hours, please add your air fare and hotel budget on top of that amount.
    In some cases, you can ask the client to book domestic air tickets and hotels for you and the translator. It’s easy and acceptable. But asking the client to book international tickets for you is beyond their ability, better you book the ticket for yourself.
    We will instruct you how many international air tickets to include, if we work together.

    Specify that your fee is after tax. Let Chinese clients pay Chinese local tax for you.
    In some cases, when you are recommended by a local designer to a Chinese client, you and the local design firm will become a team and it’s likely you will get paid by this local design firm. In this case, definitely your fee should be after tax because they will be paying the tax.
    Who will issue the invoice? We will do that on behalf of you.
    There will be some requirements and different processes here than those in your country, and we will instruct you to be prepared.

    We assume you have a representative office or design company in China since you have been working in our country. And we believe you have a website showing all of your design works and the team?

    Yes. | Not really.

    Please note that
    1. Our translator may need to ask you what some of the terminologies/names mean for precise translation;
    2. We will need to confirm the translation fee when we receive your document of original texts/document;
    3. Please send the origianal document of your brochure/presentation of your company to the following email address: amasia.china@gmail.com once you made the payment. Thank you.

    invoices and pay requests are to be prepared by Amasia,

    unless otherwise you know exactly how to do it yourself.
    We will make sure your fee proposed is after tax.
    But your invoices should include local tax!
    For example, if your design fee is 1 million dollars after tax, then state in the contract/proposal that it’s after tax amount, and prepare the invoices like this: one invoice is 1 million dollars, and another attached invoice is $110,000 which is around 10% of the total amount of $1,110,000. Normally the amount of $110,000 is more than enough for the client to pay the local tax. They can keep the rest of it if it’s more than enough.
    I know this sounds complicated, and maybe you have worked in China for years but never needed to do this. But trust me, it will worth it if you are well prepared for any complicated situations. China is a very different country in terms of economic systems, do not wait until you are asked to respond. Be prepared and think things through in advance.

    What is Pay Request? Why do I need to send a pay request in addition to invoices?

    Pls also note that we will need to prepare a Pay Request form attached to each invoice. Their purpose is different from the invoice, it is a letter to request the client to pay you, so it’s written like a letter and explain why you believe your part of work has been finished, how much it is, how much the client has already paid for the project in the past, etc. The client can sign and approve the pay requests but not the invoices. The invoices will be sent to the client after the pay requests are approved by them, and the invoices will be shown to the tax government and the bank before they pay you. Each payment will need to be proved by the government in China.
    If it’s a $100,000 bill to pay, we will prepare four different documents for such an amount.
    Document 1. An invoice with the amount of $100,000; this amount will be paid to you.
    Document 2. A Pay Request form for such an amount of $100,000;
    Document 3. Another invoice for the tax due, which amount should be around $11,000; this amount will be paid by the client to the tax government, on behalf of you, the designer.
    Document 4. A Pay Request form for $11,000;
    We will send these prepared documents to you, just print them and mail them to the client.

    Qualification Documents needed for works in China

    You will be asked to provide the following documents before signing a contract:

    • Incorporation Certification
    • Tax Payer Certification
    • Architect/Designer’s photo ID copy
    • Certification as a licensed architect
    • Business bank account info
  • 2046年的家与城市:一个少年的猜想——人们将住在哪里

    关于二十年后的城市、公寓和小城镇的一个猜测——日常生活中哪些地方会变得新鲜,哪些仍会让人觉得熟悉

    在我们开始之前,我想先和你说句实话:没有人真的知道2046年的城市和家会是什么样子。二十年是一段很长的时间。一项廉价能源的突破、人工智能的一次飞跃、一次全球大流行病、一场战争,或者一次大规模的气候冲击,都可能让画面发生不小的改变。也有可能,2046年比我们想的更眼熟——奶奶的厨房,加上一些你从没见过的新工具。所以这篇文章是一个猜测,我希望你能看清楚这个猜测是怎么搭起来的。

    我习惯把影响未来的力量按速度分成三类。有些力量变化得很快:人工智能、电池、建筑材料、通讯。有些力量变化得很慢:人体需要光与空气、家人想彼此靠近、城市需要很长时间才能重建。还有些力量平时几乎不变,但被触发时会突然剧烈改变:一场打破纪录的热浪、一条新地铁线、一项突然出台的政策、一次金融危机。本文每一处具体推测,我都会尽量说清楚我认为是哪种速度的力量在起作用,以及我在哪里可能想错。

    我要探索的猜想是这样的:到2046年,大多数中国少年长大的家,从第一眼看上去可能仍然眼熟。更大的变化会出现在门外——楼栋本身、街道、社区,以及人们在它们之间如何移动。这篇文章会沿着这个猜想走一遍。我倾向于相信这幅图景,但我希望你看到它的接缝。

    不会变的部分

    在讲变化之前,先说一些不太可能改变的事。墙壁会挡住冷气和热气。人们想要一间安静的卧室、一间有亲人在的厨房。走六分钟去上学比走半小时要好。孩子会因为抢厕所吵架。老人想离孙辈近一点。雨会落在屋顶上,屋顶老了会漏。这些慢力量在二十年里不会消失。所以当我描述新鲜事物时,请记得旧事物仍然在底下。

    我也估计到2046年,房子的价格仍然让很多人觉得头疼,就像2026年这样。形式可能不同,但仍会是个问题。这背后的慢力量很简单:当很多人想住在同一个地方,价格就会被推上去。AI不会让这件事消失。

    2046年的公寓

    2046年的中国少年,大多数应该还住在公寓楼里。这些楼可能比今天年纪更大一些——很多是2000年代和2010年代盖的,不会因为老就被全部推倒。所以如果你走进一间2046年的公寓,户型可能会让你觉得眼熟。三个房间、一个不大的厨房、阳台上挂着衣服。

    可能不一样的是细节部分。我估计到2046年,大多数公寓都会装上很好的空气滤清装置——一部分是因为人们对空气污染的担心这种慢力量没有消失,另一部分是因为相关技术变得便宜了。我估计在很多城市里,制冷会比供暖更重要——气候变化是一种慢力量,中国的夏天已经变得更长。新的公寓窗玻璃可能会像太阳镜过滤光那样过滤热量。一些老公寓的外墙可能会被加一层保温材料(一种能够把热量挡在里面或外面的材料),政府的节能项目可能会承担其中一部分费用。

    我估计每个公寓都会有某种”AI角”——一台小设备或者一块屏幕,负责处理日常事务:晚上把灯调暗、订菜、帮最小的孩子练英语、提醒家里最年长的老人吃药。这是一个”快车道”上的预测。这些工具具体长成什么样不好猜,但它们的存在我比较确定。到2026年,早期版本已经在很多家庭里出现。

    我会不会全部猜错?会的。如果到2046年之间中国遭遇了重大的经济衰退或战争,我说的那些升级可能不会发生,公寓可能就和今天差不多。如果AI工具在真实家庭里被发现”烦人多于有用”——总在响、总在坏——家庭可能直接拔掉电源。”AI角”是一个中等把握的猜测。

    多代同堂的住宅

    到2046年,世界上更多的家庭可能会住在三代或四代同堂的房子里——爷爷奶奶、爸爸妈妈、小孩在同一个屋檐下。在中国,这部分像是回到了一种更老的家庭模式。背后的原因主要是慢力量:寿命延长意味着孙辈进入青春期时祖父母还相当健康;房价高,所以共住更划算;还有AI护理工具(一种快力量)让老人留在家里、不必去养老院变得更容易。

    对一个2046年的14岁少年来说,这可能意味着奶奶住在你隔壁房间,并且会在天气糟糕的早晨把你送到电梯口。它也可能意味着家比你父母小时候住的略挤一些,意味着春节那一晚的餐桌上会坐满五代人。如果这些家庭真的形成,整体氛围很可能是温暖与小摩擦混合的。慢的人性事实不会变:再相爱的人,也会有彼此累的时候。

    我估计新建的住宅会按这种模式来设计。某些公寓可能会有一种”1.5户型”——一套主卧的家庭住宅,加上一个带独立门、共享走廊的小套间,给祖父母住。在2046年的上海、杭州这类城市,这种户型可能会变得常见。

    社区:”十五分钟生活圈”

    走出公寓门,更大的变化可能在社区。中国许多大城市在2020年代花了不少力气增加地铁线、修自行车道,并努力让日常的吃喝采买都能走着完成。到2046年,我估计许多社区会按照这样的理念设计:你日常需要的几乎所有东西——菜场、诊所、学校、公园、咖啡店、健身房——都应该能在十五分钟步行或骑行的范围内到达。这个理念在2026年已经存在,主要在欧洲和中国少数试点街区。我猜它会变得更普遍。

    我为什么倾向这样想?因为有两股慢力量朝着同一个方向推:人们越来越年长、希望走得近一些;汽车在密集城市里停车贵、用车也贵。第三股有可能突然介入的力量是:如果2030年代发生一次大的油价冲击,这个趋势会被推得更猛。一股快力量也在帮忙:电动自行车和小型电动车在最近几年已经变得好用得多。

    对2046年的少年来说,这可能意味着:你住在一个十五分钟生活圈里。学校骑车六分钟。奶奶看病的诊所就在马路对面。夜市离家两个街区。你和朋友们在自己住的楼顶碰头——业委会把那里改造成了一个小小的屋顶花园。这些都不是幻想。其中的某些片段,今天的中国就已经能找到。

    城市之间的交通

    长途出行可能也会让人觉得不一样。到2046年,中国的高速铁路网络会比今天更大。我估计一些2026年要坐六小时的车程,到2046年可能只要四小时——一部分因为新建轨道,一部分因为列车稍快了一点。考虑到通货膨胀,票价在实际价值上可能略低,因为线路投资已经回本。(这是一个中等把握的猜测,铁路政策会变。)

    在城市内部,自动驾驶出租车(自己开自己的车)可能会在2046年的大多数大城市变得正常。这项技术处在快车道。到2026年,中国的某些城市已经在受控条件下让它们上路。到2036年,我估计两百万人口以上的每一座城市都会有它们。到2046年,一个14岁少年可能根本不会开车,也不需要会。(如果我猜错了,那是因为这项技术比乐观派想的更难,或者监管一直保持很严。)

    我对”飞行出租车”(eVTOL,electric vertical takeoff and landing vehicles,电动垂直起降飞行器,相当于给人坐的大型无人机)的把握小一些。这项技术到2046年应该能用。它会不会成为普通人日常的交通方式,还是只是富人的昂贵玩具,要看规则怎么定,也要看城市如何处理它的噪音。我的猜测:它存在,但2046年的大多数少年还是会坐地铁。

    城市的气候适应

    气候变化是一股慢力量,但它的影响已经看得见。到2046年,城市必须做更多的适应——这无法回避。我估计中国的城市在这件事上会比大多数地方做得更好。原因既政治也实际:中央政府决定行动时可以推得很快,中国的工程师在大型基础设施上有很扎实的纪录。

    那会是什么样子?更多的树和公园(有时被叫做”海绵城市”——一种让雨水渗下去而不是淹上街道的设计)。更多反光的白色屋顶来给楼栋降温。最热的街区里设地下避暑空间。带空调的公交站。为干旱年份准备的更大蓄水设施。更准确的台风和洪水预报。这些都不是什么稀奇东西,2026年已经有了零部件。问题是它们能铺多广。

    我对”城市基本能跟上”是中等把握。我不太确定的,是这些城市里每个人都能均匀受益。富裕街区大概率最先升级。较旧的、住在条件较差街区的楼栋,可能最后才轮上。这是一种我们在2026年已经看得很清楚的慢力量。

    隐私与”会看人的城市”

    2046年的城市里,建筑内外的摄像头和传感器都会比今天多得多。其中有些会带来好处——找回走丢的孩子、抓住真正的犯罪、管理交通。也有一些会让人觉得过头。我估计”有用”和”过头”之间的边界在哪里,会成为2030年代和2040年代持续争论的问题之一。

    具体到中国,我估计大多数居民在大多数时候会觉得这套系统井然有序,但也有一部分人会有一种被一直看着的安静的感觉。这种感觉如何取决于你是谁、你想做什么。这背后的慢力量是人性的:人想要安全,也想要自由,两者会拉扯。快力量则是技术,它让监控工具和隐私工具同时变得更强。

    我不会假装知道这场辩论会怎么收场。我估计它会被反复”重新收场”,在许多城市、许多次小型的争论与规则中一点一点向前。一个2046年的14岁少年,会在很多小事情上感觉到它:学校大门能识别你的脸,楼宇知道你什么时候到家,手机能证明你这一天去过哪里。其中一些你会喜欢,另一些不会。

    中小城市与乡村

    到目前为止,我主要在写大城市。2046年的大多数中国少年应该还是会住在大城市,但住在中小城市、甚至乡镇和村庄里的比例可能会增长——一部分因为远程办公改变了人们能在哪里生活,一部分因为有些大城市变得太贵。

    在中小城市,我估计上面描述的那些变化会到达得稍慢,但终会到达。”十五分钟生活圈”在小城其实比在超大城市更容易建——因为小城本来就没那么大。多代同堂在小一点的地方从未真正消失过。AI工具一旦被造出来就便宜,所以会在到达大城市之后几年内传到县乡。

    乡村的图景更难猜。如果到2046年高速互联网、医疗和好的学校都能进村,对一些年轻家庭来说,乡村生活可能会重新有吸引力。如果做不到,那么城市化这股慢力量会继续推动人口向城市流动。我稍稍倾向于”乡村比2026年更有吸引力”,但只是稍稍。2030年代的政策会决定其中很大一部分。

    被地图遗忘的人

    上面描绘的那个2046年,对于大约十亿左右、生活在城市或者交通便利的中小城市、且收入稳定的中国人来说大致成立。对其他人来说,这些升级要么晚到,要么根本不到。外来务工人员可能仍住在没有新空气滤清和新制冷的旧楼里。子女远在外地的乡村老人,可能身边没有人帮他们把”AI角”配置好。容易受气候伤害的街区,可能要等到一次悲剧上了新闻之后,才能拿到避暑设施。

    放到全球范围看,2046年的中国和许多低收入国家之间的差距,可能不是缩小,而是扩大。技术会传开,但安装它的钱不一定跟得上。(这是一个猜测,我很愿意被证明猜错了。)

    “十五分钟生活圈”在今天就是一种特权,到2046年也很可能仍然是。2040年代末关于住房和交通的政治争论,本质上都是在争谁有资格拿到这种被重新设计过的日常生活。

    结语

    这整篇文章是一个猜测。我所做的最显眼的猜测,并不是家会变得更聪明,也不是出租车会自己开。而是日常生活的形状——你走路能到哪里、谁住在你隔壁房间、夏天的空气是什么感觉——可能在静悄悄地发生改变,加起来变成一种不太一样的生活。2046年公寓的墙壁,从外观上可能和2026年的差不多。墙外的部分,才是最有可能让人觉得新鲜的部分。

    我倾向于这幅图景,因为推动它的力量——快速的技术、缓慢的人口变化、缓慢的人类需求——似乎指向相近的方向。但我可能在很多方向上错。一场战争或金融危机可能让城市升级停下来。一次气候冲击可能重排整幅画面。廉价能源或者AI的一次大跃进,可能让世界比我描述的要陌生得多,而那种陌生我从2026年这个位置看不到。请把这篇文章当作一位老师的最佳猜测来读,然后做出你自己的猜测。

    给你的一个问题

    如果让你重新设计你现在所住的楼栋或街道里的一件事——一项二十年后会让你日常生活变得更好的改动——你会改什么?为什么?你的答案不必从这篇文章里挑。你的回答会改变你现在正在做的某个选择吗?比如去哪里读书、去哪里工作、下一步搬去哪里?